2010 World Series of Poker: The Numbers Game (Day 9)
A little scoreboard watching through twelve events:
Event 1 - $500 CE NLHE: 866 in 2009; 721 in 2010 (-17%)
Event 2 - $50,000 PPC: 148 in 2008*; 116 in 2010 (-22%)
Event 3 - $1,000 NLHE: 6,012 in 2009; 4,345 in 2010 (-28%)
Event 4 - $1,500 O8: 918 in 2009; 818 in 2010 (-11%)
Event 5 - $1,500 NLHE - 2,791 in 2009; 2,092 in 2010 (-25%)
Event 6 - $5,000 NLHE shootout - 280 in 2009; 358 in 2010 (+28%)
Event 7 - $2,500 2-7 TD - 257 in 2009; 291 in 2010 (+13%)
Event 8 - $1,500 NLHE - 2,506 in 2009; 2,341 in 2010 (-9%)
Event 9 - $1,500 PLHE - 633 in 2009; 650 in 2010 (+3%)
Event 10 - $10,000 7CS - 142 in 2009; 150 15 in 2010 (+6%)
Event 11 - $1,500 NLHE - 2,638 in 2009; 2,563 in 2010 (-3%)
Event 12 - $1,500 LHE - 643 in 2009; 625 in 2010 (-3%)
That's six events that are down in numbers, 3 events that are flat, and 3 events that are up. One of the "up" events -- the $10k Stud -- could easily just be a statistical aberration. I wouldn't expect to see Stud make much of a comeback any time soon.
If we add up all the numbers, we find that attendance is off 17% so far to start the 2010 WSOP. Andrew Feldman at ESPN states on Twitter that we can't say that the WSOP isn't succeeding based on donkament numbers. And I'm not suggesting that the WSOP isn't succeeding. Sure, if you get 2,000 players for a tournament, that's a great turnout.
But declining numbers surely have some meaning -- the question is what that meaning is. Total donkament numbers so far are off 19%, a shade worse than what the total WSOP is off. Donkaments are what the WSOP has become. There are 13 on this year's schedule of 57 events, not counting shootouts, 6-max events and non-open events. If we're not going to judge the WSOP on donkaments, what *are* we going to judge it on?
(Prediction, by the way: the $1,500 NLHE shootout will see a huge increase in turnout this year.)
I'm going to mull over what I think it all means while I continue to watch the entrants on an event-by-event basis. In the meantime, today I'll be working the $10K stud final two tables. It's quite a line-up, so check out the live updates on PokerNews.