2009 WSOP: Big Problems with Event 4 (It's All About the Math!)
Oh Harrah's. In a certain way I love the fact that you want to open your greedy, corporate arms to as many donkeys as you can squeeze into the Rio Convention Center. On the other hand, I hate that you don't often stop to think about what you might reap from the seeds you sow.
Today is Day 1a of Event 4, the $1,000 NLHE "Stimulus Special", and by all accounts it is a smashing success. The tournament is completely sold out, with 3,000 players starting today on Day 1a and 3,000 players starting tomorrow on Day 1b. There's just one little problem: it's a three-day event.
"Wait a second," you say. "Day 1a is at the dinner break and already only 1,100 players remain." Sure. And if play continues at its current pace, around 280 will emerge from the carnage by the end of the night. The only problem with that figure is that it's already into the money. WSOP events typically pay 10% of the field; that's 603 players for this event (nine-handed tables). If play is not stopped EARLY tonight, the field will already be into the money.
Fine. They'll stop early. Say they stop at 350. Then they do the same thing on Day 1b; they stop early at 350. That wouldn't be too much of a problem except that Event #4 is a 3-day event. The schedule requires Day 2 to play all the way down to the final nine. That means that Day 2 faces the daunting task of playing from 700 to 9.
Yikes.
A little historical perspective is in order. At the 2008 World Series of Poker, yours truly covered Event #2, the $1,500 donkament that drew 3,929 players. Day 2 started at 2pm with 448 players remaining, average stack 26,310, blinds to resume at 500 / 1,000 / 100.(FN) At 6am there were still 18 players in the field. Those players, tired and frustrated, mutinied and demanded that play be halted. Tournament staff acceded to the request and suspended play until 1:30pm in the afternoon. Three-and-a-half hours after the 1:30pm restart, ten players remained. Tournament officials made a wise decision to play a ten-handed final table. It started at 7:30pm and ended at 4:45am.
[(FN) It seems that my "40 big blind rule" may not apply to these small buy-in donkaments. I wonder if that's because amateurs will wait much, much longer to start moving before seasoned veterans will -- especially if a bracelet is at the end of the road.]
It's deja vu all over again. With 18 million total chips in play, and assuming they only play nine full levels tonight, the math says it will take about 18 hours on Day 2 to get to the final table. But given my footnote above, I'd add a few hours to that. Most of these guys are amateurs and will tighten up massively the closer they get to the final table.
I'll beat this horse til it's blue in the face. You just can't put that many chips in play and still keep a tournament as a three-day event without massively shortening the length of the levels or making the blind increase more dramatic. Poker tournaments don't work that way.
Good luck cleaning up the mess you've made, Harrah's. Expect a mutiny on your hands in the wee hours of the morning on Day 2, even if you push up the re-start time to 12pm.

